Q2 2026 Market Report · Year-Over-Year Analysis · Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Baja Real Estate
Q2 2026 Market Report · BHHS Baja Real Estate
Los Cabos Market Reports
Quarterly and annual market data for Los Cabos and Baja California Sur
Q2 2026 · Homes, Condos & Land
All percentage data compares Q2 2026 to Q2 2025. Volume figures are approximate.
Q2 2026 · All Zones
Q2 2026 · Closed sales across all zones
| Type | Cabo San Lucas | San Jose del Cabo | Pacific | East Cape | La Paz |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homes | $49.7M | $92.6M | $44.5M | $6.4M | $9.7M |
| Condos | $40.0M | $61.0M | $14.0M | $0 | $6.4M |
| Land | $3.4M | $18.4M | $9.0M | $4.9M | $1.7M |
| Total | $93.0M | $172.0M | $67.5M | $11.3M | $17.8M |
East Cape shows $0 in condo sales for Q2 2026, confirmed against listing counts. This is not a data gap; East Cape has effectively no condo inventory.
Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026
Quarterly Momentum · 2026
Method note: Q2 2026 figures are based on closed sales across five defined zones (Cabo San Lucas, San Jose del Cabo, Pacific, East Cape, La Paz), pulled directly from FlexMLS Market Trends reporting. Q1 2026 figures are as originally published in the Q1 2026 report. For 2023-2025 annual performance and multi-year trends, see the Q1 2026 Los Cabos Market Report.
Q1 2026 vs Q2 2026 · By Property Type
| Type | Q1 2026 Volume | Q2 2026 Volume | Volume Δ | Q1 2026 Avg Price | Q2 2026 Avg Price | Price Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homes | $151.0M | $202.9M | ▲ 34.4% | $1.17M | $1.56M | ▲ 33.4% |
| Condos | $101.0M | $121.3M | ▲ 20.1% | $808K | $656K | ▼ 18.8% |
| Land | $25.0M | $37.5M | ▲ 49.8% | $284K | $446K | ▲ 57.0% |
Condo average sale price fell quarter-over-quarter despite volume and unit growth. This reflects a mix shift toward smaller, lower-priced units, not a market-wide price decline (condo price is up 9.2% year-over-year, see property type breakdown above).
Q1 2026 vs Q2 2026 · By Zone
| Zone | Q1 2026 Volume | Q2 2026 Volume | Volume Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose del Cabo | $130.8M | $172.0M | ▲ 31.5% |
| Cabo San Lucas | $66.6M | $93.0M | ▲ 39.7% |
| Pacific | $43.8M | $67.5M | ▲ 54.1% |
| La Paz | $17.6M | $17.8M | ▲ 1.3% |
| East Cape | $13.1M | $11.3M | ▼ 13.7% |
Q1 2026 zone figures are as originally published in the Q1 2026 report (competitor-sourced, not independently re-verified); they sum to approximately $271.9M against Q1's published topline of $278.3M, a small internal gap inherited from the original report. Q2 2026 zone figures reconcile exactly to the $361.7M topline above.
Is Los Cabos a Buyer's Market Entering 2026?
The Los Cabos market entered 2026 with a recalibration that, on the surface, reads as contraction. Q1 volume fell 29.7% from Q1 2025, a sharp number that demands context. The prior year comparison period was exceptionally strong, and the underlying demand fundamentals have not shifted. Buyers remain active; the difference is their selectivity.
What I observe in the current market is a bifurcation that has been building for several quarters. Finished homes in amenity-rich communities continue to trade at or near list price when priced against actual sold comparables. Meanwhile, speculative land and preconstruction inventory in oversupplied submarkets is sitting longer and selling at increasing discounts.
The cash-market structure of Los Cabos insulates sellers from the financing pressures that typically trigger distressed selling. Most owners who purchased in the 2021-2023 window have already seen significant appreciation and have no urgency to exit. This keeps quality inventory constrained even as headline transaction counts soften.
For buyers entering now, the conditions are favorable in ways that were not available two years ago. Inventory is broader, sellers are more negotiable on timing and terms, and the fundamentals supporting long-term value remain intact: international demand, infrastructure investment in the corridor, constrained coastal land supply, and Los Cabos' position as the premier luxury real estate market in Mexico.
Over the past five years, more than $10 billion USD has been invested in the region. That investment does not reverse on a soft quarter. It compounds.
BHHS Baja Real Estate
Why Pricing & Positioning Matter in 2026
In a market with 21 to 44 months of home inventory depending on price tier, the gap between a quick close and an extended listing comes down almost entirely to pricing discipline and presentation.
Properties priced to current sold data, not the peak comparables from 2022 or the aspirational projections from a developer marketing brochure, are moving. The sale-to-list ratio on homes under $1M was 95.2% in Q1 2026. That is healthy. It tells you buyers are paying close to asking, which means sellers who price realistically are getting compensated fairly.
The mistake I see consistently is sellers anchoring to what comparable properties were listed at, rather than what they actually sold for. In a market with extended days on market and double the inventory from two years ago, the listed price is not the market. The sold price is.
Amenity-rich luxury communities continue to outperform when priced and presented correctly. Extended days on market almost always signal a pricing or positioning mismatch, not a lack of buyer interest. The demand is there. The buyers are informed and comparing real sold data, value per square foot, condition, and lifestyle offering. Strategy matters more than it has in years.
BHHS Baja Real Estate
Q2 2026 sold metrics (Apr 1-Jun 30) are based on closed sales recorded via FlexMLS Market Trends reporting across five defined zones: Cabo San Lucas, San Jose del Cabo, Pacific, East Cape, and La Paz. Each zone aggregates its constituent FlexMLS sub-areas (for example, Cabo San Lucas combines CSL Cor-Inland, CSL-Beach & Marina, CSL-Centro, CSL-Corr. Oceanside, and CSL-North). Quarter totals are the sum of the three monthly rows FlexMLS returns for the date range. Q1 2026 figures used for within-year comparison are as originally published in the Q1 2026 report and have not been independently re-verified against this quarter's methodology. All figures are reported in USD. MXN equivalents are approximate based on the daily exchange rate published by BANXICO. Data sourced from AMPI / FlexMLS regional multiple listing service. All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be independently reviewed and verified. For 2023-2025 annual performance and multi-year trends, see the Q1 2026 Los Cabos Market Report.
Frequently Asked Questions About Los Cabos Real Estate
How often is this market report updated?
This report is updated quarterly, with a full year-end edition published each January. This edition covers Q2 2026 closed sales (April through June) compared to Q2 2025, along with a within-year comparison against Q1 2026 to track momentum through the year. For 2023-2025 annual history, see the Q1 2026 report.
What areas does this report cover?
The data covers five defined zones across Los Cabos and Baja California Sur: Cabo San Lucas, San Jose del Cabo, Pacific, East Cape, and La Paz. Each zone combines its surrounding corridor sub-markets (Cabo San Lucas includes the Cabo Corridor areas, San Jose del Cabo includes the San Jose Corridor areas). La Paz is tracked as its own full zone, not a footnote, though our primary brokerage focus remains the Los Cabos corridor.
Where does the data come from?
All Q2 2026 figures are sourced from AMPI and the FlexMLS regional multiple listing service, the primary data source for closed transactions in Baja California Sur. All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be independently verified.
What is the average home price in Los Cabos?
In Q2 2026, the average sale price across all property types was $907,000 USD. Homes averaged $1.56M, condos averaged $656K, and land averaged $446K. San Jose del Cabo led all zones in total sales volume this quarter at $172M.
Is Los Cabos currently a buyer's or seller's market?
It depends on the product and price tier. In Q2 2026, condo and land prices both rose year-over-year even as unit counts declined, while home prices continued to soften, a sign that well-positioned inventory still commands real pricing power even as overall volume cools. The market is selective, not slow: pricing discipline and product quality are doing more work than they did two years ago.
What does months of inventory mean and why does it matter?
Months of inventory measures how long it would take to sell all active listings at the current pace of sales. Under 6 months typically favors sellers, over 12 favors buyers. As of Q1 2026, the most recent inventory data published, home inventory ranged from 21.8 months under $1M to 44.6 months over $1M, meaning supply was elevated relative to absorption.
Why did Los Cabos real estate sales volume drop in 2026?
Total closed sales volume in Q2 2026 was down 26.6% year-over-year, but that’s measured against an unusually strong Q2 2025. Within 2026 itself, the market accelerated: volume is up 30% and units sold are up 16% from Q1 to Q2. The year-over-year number reflects a return to a more typical pace after an exceptional prior year, not a market in decline.
Are condo prices going up or down in Los Cabos right now?
Up. Condo average sale price rose 9.2% year-over-year in Q2 2026, and condo volume rose 6.3% even as unit counts dipped slightly. Within the quarter, the average condo price fell compared to Q1 2026, but that reflects a shift toward smaller, lower-priced units selling in higher volume, not a market-wide price decline.
Which part of Los Cabos is seeing the most real estate demand right now?
By total sales volume, San Jose del Cabo leads at $172M in Q2 2026, followed by Cabo San Lucas at $93M. By growth rate, Pacific was the fastest-moving zone this quarter, up 54% in volume compared to Q1 2026.
How does Q2 2026 compare to Q1 2026?
Q2 outperformed Q1 across the board: total volume rose 30%, units sold rose 16%, and average sale price rose 12%. Every property type gained volume quarter over quarter. See the full within-year comparison in this report.